Around the World in Eighty Days: Some Insights for Health Policies from Early Incidence, Fatality, and Recovery Data of Covid-19

Covid-19 is different from previous pandemics in many respects and singularly striking for an exceptionally unique phenomenon. Never before has an infection gone around the world to 216 countries in a short span of eighty days. This paper compares the incidence, fatality and recovery from Covid-19 data to discern patterns, examine differences in approach and draw lessons for health policy and health systems with data of first eighty days from the first infection in each country. The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, to compare responses of high income and low income countries from the perspective of spread, control measures, containment, tracing and treatment;second, to examine whether greater societal development or prosperity is associated with better outcomes for recovery of infected patients or lower fatality;and thirdly, to consider institutional differences that may explain differences in outcomes. For the study, we included countries with high infection rates [United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Italy, China, and Saudi Arabia] and also those with low infection rates (Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and India). We conclude that health systems in high-income countries can learn to be resilient from the experience of other high income countries and also from low-income countries. Timely interventions and administrative initiatives can bring about an enormous difference in outcomes. © 2022 Adani Institute of Infrastructure.

Strategies for solving wicked problems of true uncertainty: tackling pandemics like COVID-19 (version: April 13, 2020)

This paper has three objectives: first to locate Covid-19 as a 'wicked problem' characterized by 'true uncertainty' that challenges strategists and unrolls new research agenda;second, to examine the inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary dimensions of the endeavours to contain the pandemic that point to the need for new conversations beyond national boundaries;and thirdly to propose, based on interpretive pattern recognition methodologies, a five pronged approach for the immediate future after the lockdown. The study points to the need for further research on how epidemiological imperatives, disease burdens, economic adversities, civic community cohesions and political compulsions come together to resolve tensions between costs, efficiency and equity in formulating responses to emergencies.